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جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی محیطی - سال سی و دوم شماره 4 (پیاپی 84، زمستان 1400)

نشریه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی محیطی
سال سی و دوم شماره 4 (پیاپی 84، زمستان 1400)

  • تاریخ انتشار: 1400/12/02
  • تعداد عناوین: 7
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  • مسلم سواری*، لیلا برفی زاده، زینب اسدی صفحات 1-28

    تغییرات آب وهوایی و گرم شدن کره زمین بیشتر کشورهای جهان را با بحران خشکسالی و کمبود آب مواجه کرده است؛ در این کشورها، بخش های اقتصادی بخش کشاورزی به دلیل وابستگی زیاد به نزولات جوی بیش از همه بخش ها آسیب دیده است. نخستین اثر خشکسالی به شکل کاهش تولید و درآمد کشاورزان پدیدار می شود که به افزایش فقر و ناامنی غذایی در مناطق روستایی می انجامد و در صورتی که برای مقابله با آن چاره ای اندیشه نشود، جوامع روستایی با مشکلات زیادی روبه رو خواهند شد. در این زمینه، پژوهش حاضر با هدف کلی بررسی آثار سرمایه اجتماعی بر دستیابی به امنیت غذایی در شرایط خشکسالی در سکونتگاه های روستایی شهرستان دورود انجام شد. جامعه آماری این پژوهش، تمامی خانوارهای روستایی شاغل در بخش کشاورزی شهرستان دورود بود. حجم نمونه با استفاده از جدول کرجسی و مورگان، 375 سرپرست خانوار با روش نمونه گیری طبقه ای با انتساب متناسب برای مطالعه انتخاب شد. تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها در دو بخش آمار توصیفی و استنباطی با استفاده از نرم افزار SPSS انجام شد. ابزار اصلی پژوهش، پرسش نامه ای بود که روایی آن با پانل متخصصان و پایایی آن با ضریب آلفای کرونباخ تایید شد. نتایج نشان داد خانوارهای روستایی ازنظر امنیت غذایی و سرمایه اجتماعی در وضعیت مناسبی قرار ندارند؛ علاوه بر این، نتایج رگرسیون ترتیبی نشان داد مولفه های سرمایه اجتماعی (اعتماد اجتماعی، انسجام اجتماعی، مشارکت و اقدام جمعی، عضویت در گروه) اثر مثبت و معنا داری بر بهبود امنیت غذایی در خانوارهای روستایی شهرستان دورود دارد. نتایج این پژوهش بینش های جدیدی را برای سیاست گذاران و برنامه ریزان توسعه روستایی به منظور پایدارسازی خانوارهای روستایی در شرایط خشکسالی ایجاد می کند.

    کلیدواژگان: سرمایه اجتماعی، امنیت غذایی، خانوارهای روستایی، خشکسالی
  • موسی عابدینی*، فهیمه پورفراش زاده، مرتضی قراچورلو صفحات 29-43

    مدل سازی جریان آب برای بسیاری از فعالیت ها مانند کنترل سیلاب یا خشکسالی و بهره برداری درست از منابع آب ضروری است. این پژوهش با هدف تحلیل و مدل سازی تغییرات مکانی دبی ماهانه حوضه ها در ارتباط با تغییرات خصوصیات ژیومورفومتری آنها در حوضه آبریز کشف رود واقع در استان خراسان رضوی انجام شد. کم و کیف این ارتباط با اجرای آزمون های همبستگی و رگرسیون چندمتغیره بین دبی های کمینه، بیشینه و متوسط ماهانه به عنوان متغیرهای وابسته و 16 متغیر مستقل ژیومورفومتری شامل محیط، مساحت، ارتفاع حداکثر، ارتفاع حداقل، ارتفاع متوسط، دامنه ارتفاعی، شیب حداکثر، شیب متوسط، شیب آبراهه اصلی، طول آبراهه اصلی، مجموع طول آبراهه ها، تراکم زهکشی، نسبت ناهمواری شیوم، ضریب گراویلیوس، کشیدگی و زمان تمرکز مشخص شد. سطح معنا داری روابط، 05/0 و کمتر در نظر گرفته شد. نتایج تحلیل همبستگی نشان داد روابط معنا داری بین دبی کمینه ماهانه و متغیرهای مستقل وجود ندارد که احتمالا ناشی از وضعیت خشکی و تغییرات اندک دبی کم آبی در بین زیرحوضه هاست. درمقابل وجود روابط معنا دار بین دبی های متوسط و بیشینه ماهانه و شش متغیر ژیومورفومتری شامل ارتفاع حداکثر، ارتفاع متوسط، اختلاف ارتفاع، شیب متوسط، تراکم زهکشی و نسبت ناهمواری به ارایه مدل های رگرسیونی از تغییرات مکانی دو متغیر وابسته انجامید. دو مدل حاصل از دقت و کارایی خوبی برخوردار و قادر به تبیین 90 درصد واریانس دبی حداکثر ماهانه و 80 درصد واریانس دبی متوسط ماهانه بودند. خصوصیات ارتفاعی و ناهمواری به عنوان مهم ترین خصوصیات هندسی حوضه ها در تبیین تغییرات مکانی دبی ماهانه شناخته شدند. به علاوه برخلاف انتظار، رابطه معنا داری بین مساحت حوضه و دبی های میانگین و حدی ماهانه به دست نیامد.

    کلیدواژگان: دبی، خصوصیات هندسی، همبستگی، رگرسیون، کشف رود
  • فاطمه بهادری امجز، مجتبی سلیمانی ساردو* صفحات 45-63

    سدها ازنظر اقتصادی، سیاسی و اجتماعی سازه هایی بسیار مهم به شمار می آیند و نقش آنها در توسعه کشورها انکارناپذیر است. از سوی دیگر، سدها سازه هایی با خطر پیش رونده محسوب می شوند؛ بنابراین با توجه به اهمیت راهبردی آنها، لازم است بتوان به طور دقیق ریسک هایی را شناسایی کرد که این سازه ها ایجاد می کنند. سد جیرفت، یکی از مهم ترین سدهای بتنی دو قوسی در جنوب استان کرمان روی رودخانه هلیل رود است که وظیفه تامین نیاز آبی بخش های مختلف را بر عهده دارد. هدف از پژوهش حاضر، شناسایی و ارزیابی ریسک سد جیرفت در فاز بهره برداری با استفاده از روش EFMEA است. بدین منظور ریسک های مدنظر در پنج گروه محیط فیزیکی شیمیایی، طبیعی، بیولوژیکی، محیط اجتماعی، اقتصادی و فرهنگی و ایمنی و بهداشتی طبقه بندی شدند و سپس با مصاحبه با کارشناسان و متخصصان خبره درباره سد جیرفت کاربرگ ارزیابی ریسک براساس احتمال وقوع، شدت اثر و احتمال کشف تکمیل شد. در این روش امتیازدهی به هریک از ریسک های احتمالی در محیط های پذیرنده صورت گرفت. با مشخص شدن احتمال وقوع، شدت و احتمال کشف، مقدار عددی اولویت هر ریسک (RPN) محاسبه شد و درنهایت به منظور تعیین اولویت سطح ریسک، حد بالا و پایین ریسک، مقادیر میانگین و انحراف معیار با استفاده از نرم افزار SPSS به دست آمد. نتایج این پژوهش نشان داد در گروه ریسک های مربوط به محیط فیزیکی شیمیایی فرسایش خاک و رسوب گذاری، در محیط بیولوژیکی ریسک اثرگذاری بر زیستگاه و تهدید حیات آبزیان در پایین دست، در گروه ریسک های ایمنی و بهداشتی خطاها و اشتباهات انسانی، قبل، بعد و حین بهره برداری، سطح ریسک بالا را به خود اختصاص داده اند. با تکیه بر نتایج پژوهش و با برنامه ریزی درست و ارایه راهکارهای پیشگیرانه و اصلاحی، می توان خطرات محیط زیستی ناشی از سد را به میزان زیادی کاهش داد.

    کلیدواژگان: ارزیابی آثار محیط زیستی، EFMEA، منابع آب، هلیل رود
  • صیاد اصغری سرسکانرود*، شیوا صفری، الهام ملانوری صفحات 65-86

    آب های زیرزمینی، منبع اصلی آب شیرین در بسیاری از نقاط جهان است. در مطالعه حاضر پس از بررسی سطح آب های زیرزمینی شمال غرب کشور با استفاده از ماهواره ثقل سنج GRACE، وضعیت این آب ها در منطقه خیاو با استفاده از داده های ایستگاه های پیزومتری و داده های بارشی اخذشده از ماهواره اینترنتی TRMM و همچنین داده های GRACE اخذشده در رابطه با شمال غرب کشور بررسی شد. در ادامه برای بررسی تاثیر تغییرات کاربری اراضی بر نوسانات آب های زیرزمینی، با استفاده از تصاویر سنجنده OLI لندست 8 مربوط به سال 1395 و سنجنده TM لندست 5 مربوط به سال 1381، نقشه کاربری اراضی مربوط به حوضه خیاو استخراج شد. نتایج GRACE روند نزولی و کاهش 33سانتی متری سطح آب های زیرزمینی شمال غرب کشور را در بازه زمانی 14ساله نشان داد. بررسی تغییرات کاربری اراضی خیاو نیز روند نزولی سطح سفره ها به ویژه در کاربری مسکونی را به دلیل کاهش چشمگیر نفوذپذیری و برداشت های بیش از حد از آب های زیرزمینی نشان داد. از پژوهش حاضر چنین استنباط می شود که تغییر سطح سفره های آب زیرزمینی متاثر از کاربری اراضی است. در کنار تغییرات کاربری با توجه به اطلاعات بارشی به دست آمده و صحت سنجی این اطلاعات با استفاده از داده ایستگاه سینوپتیک، نوسانات بارشی نیز بی تاثیر نبوده و بر کاهش سطح سفره ها تاثیرگذار است. پیشنهاد می شود در مطالعات آینده، وضعیت سفره ها با استفاده از داده های GRACE و تغییرات کاربری اراضی و تاثیر آن بر سطح سفره های آب زیرزمینی در مناطق مختلف به ویژه مناطق خشک بررسی شود.

    کلیدواژگان: آب های زیرزمینی، ماهواره GRACE، سامانه Google earth engine، کاربری اراضی
  • محدثه ارشادحسینی، امیررضا کشتکار*، سیدموسی حسینی، علی افضلی صفحات 87-105

    آب زیرزمینی از مهم ترین منابع تامین کننده آب مورد نیاز کشاورزی، شرب و صنعت به ویژه در مناطق خشک فلات مرکزی ایران است؛ بنابراین بررسی روند تغییرات کیفی آن اهمیت فراوانی در مدیریت پایدار منابع آب دارد. در همین زمینه پژوهش حاضر روند تغییرات کیفی آب زیرزمینی را در دشت یزد- اردکان با استفاده از روش ناپارامتری من کندال و تخمین گر شیب سن بررسی کرده است. برای این منظور از آمار و اطلاعات 25 محل اندازه گیری (چاه، چشمه و قنات) در بازه زمانی 83- 84 تا 93- 94 مربوط به دوره تغذیه و تخلیه استفاده شد. پارامترهای بررسی شده شامل میزان اسیدیته، هدایت الکتریکی، غلظت املاح محلول، نسبت جذب سدیم، بی کربنات، کلر، سولفات، پتاسیم، منیزیم، کلسیم، سدیم و درصد سدیم محلول بوده است. در این انتخاب تلاش شده است منابع برداشت (چاه، چشمه و قنات) پراکنش مناسب در کل سطح دشت و آمار استفاده شده ازنظر طول دوره آماری نواقص کمتری داشته باشد. نتایج به دست آمده از این پژوهش نشان داد روند تغییرات تمامی متغیرهای کیفی بررسی شده در این دشت رو به افزایش بوده است و در طول دوره تغذیه 2/49 درصد و در طول دوره تخلیه 8/50 درصد، روند منفی معنا دار را در سطح اعتماد 90 درصد نشان دادند. حال آنکه روند مثبت معنا دار در طول دوره زمانی تغذیه، 3/45 درصد و در طول دوره تخلیه، 7/54 درصد را در سطح اعتماد 90 درصد نشان داد. با توجه به مثبت بودن شیب خط روند برای متغیرهای کیفی موثر در منابع آب زیرزمینی می توان نتیجه گرفت که روند تغییرات کیفی آب زیرزمینی در این دشت رو به کاهش بوده و این روند در زمان های تخلیه یا برداشت نسبت به زمان های تغذیه بیشتر بوده که ناشی از کاهش بارش ها و پیرو آن کاهش کیفیت منابع آب زیرزمینی بوده است.

    کلیدواژگان: روند، کیفیت آب زیرزمینی، روش ناپارامتری منکندال، تخمین گر سن، دشت یزد- اردکان
  • محمدرضا همزه ای*، محمدحسین بابایی، عبدالحمید پاپ زن صفحات 107-134

    روند رو به افزایش پدیده ریزگردها در سال های اخیر، توجه جوامع جهانی را به خود جلب کرده است. کاهش خسارت احتمالی ریزگردها در آینده مستلزم شناسایی و پهنه بندی دقیق مناطقی است که از ریزگردها تاثیر می پذیرند. برای انجام این پژوهش، آمار روزانه گرد و غبار با کد 06 مربوط به 14 ایستگاه هواشناسی سراسر استان کرمانشاه طی دوره آماری 1381 تا 1397 از اداره کل هواشناسی استان کرمانشاه دریافت و به صورت روزانه، ماهیانه و سالیانه در محیط نرم افزارهای Excel و SPSS تحلیل و محاسبه شد؛ سپس نقشه پهنه بندی و لایه های اطلاعاتی آن برای کل دوره در محیط نرم افزاری Arc GIS ترسیم شد. نتایج به دست آمده نشان داد شهرستان های نوار غربی استان کرمانشاه یعنی سرپل ذهاب، قصر شیرین، پاوه، گیلان غرب و ثلاث باباجانی به ترتیب با مجموع 1333، 1301، 1103، 1047 و 1001 روز در سال، بیشترین فراوانی گرد و غبار و سنقر و هرسین با 544 و 532 روز در سال، کمترین فراوانی گرد و غبار را دارند. درمجموع و طی بازه 16ساله، 12163 روز همراه با گرد و غبار در شهرستان های استان کرمانشاه مشاهده شده و هر شهرستان به طور میانگین دست کم 2/48 روز در سال با گرد و غبار مواجه بوده است. پهنه بندی گرد و غبار برای ایستگاه های مطالعه شده نشان داد ازنظر فراوانی سالیانه طوفان های گرد و غبار معلق در هوا، این ایستگاه ها در سه دسته خیلی شدید، شدید و متوسط قرار می گیرند. در دسته خیلی شدید شهرستان های سرپل ذهاب، قصر شیرین، پاوه، گیلان غرب و ثلاث باباجانی قرار می گیرند. در دسته شدید شهرستان های کرمانشاه، جوانرود، روانسر، دالاهو و اسلام آباد قرار دارند و در دسته متوسط شهرستان های صحنه، کنگاور، سنقر و هرسین قرار می گیرند. باید این واقعیت را بپذیریم که ما همچنان پدیده گرد و غبار را تجربه خواهیم کرد و فقط زمانی این پدیده کاهش خواهد یافت که زمین دوباره رطوبت مناسب جذب کند و بارندگی موثری در بخش های غربی خاورمیانه ازجمله عراق، عربستان، کویت و ایران روی دهد و هورالعظیم دوباره همانند گذشته پرآب و کار کاشتن درختان (کمربند سبز) هرچه سریع تر آغاز شود؛ زیرا هر هکتار جنگل تا 68 تن گرد و خاک را جذب می کند؛ از سویی وجود جنگل های دست کاشت در مناطق بیابانی نیز موجب تثبیت شن های روان، ایجاد تعادل اکولوژیکی و حفاظت از منابع آب و خاک مناطق زیر پوشش می شود.

    کلیدواژگان: ریزگرد، گرد و غبار، پهنه بندی، بلایای اقلیمی و کرمانشاه
  • اصغر نوروزی*، بهروز قرنی آرانی، مریم عبدالحسینی صفحات 135-153

    در دهه های اخیر با افزایش روزافزون جمعیت، صنعتی شدن جوامع، تغییر در سبک زندگی و افزایش تنوع نیازهای انسانی، میزان تولید مواد زاید و پسماندها با پیامدهای منفی برای سلامت انسان و محیط افزایش یافته است. نواحی روستایی نیز به موازات تحولات جهانی با انواع مختلف پسماندها و پیامدهای منفی آنها روبه رو بوده اند و «مدیریت پسماند» پاسخی به این وضعیت است؛ بر این اساس پژوهش حاضر تاثیرات مدیریت پسماند را بر حفظ محیط نواحی روستایی شهرستان شاهین شهر و میمه ارزیابی می کند. با توجه به گستردگی جامعه آماری، چهار روستای حسن رباط، جهادآباد، ونداده و سه به شیوه خوشه ای تصادفی تعیین و براساس فرمول کوکران، 282 نمونه (مردم و کارشناسان) انتخاب شدند. نوع پژوهش، توصیفی تحلیلی و ازلحاظ هدف، کاربردی است. داده ها با روش پیمایشی و پس از طراحی پرسش نامه پژوهشگرساخته از سطح روستاهای نمونه به روش تصادفی جمع آوری شده است. برای تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها از آزمون های تی تک نمونه ای، تحلیل واریانس و همچنین آزمون توکی در نرم افزار SPSS استفاده شده است. براساس نتایج، میانگین کل شاخص ها در ناحیه مطالعه شده بیش از 3 و برای شاخص آب 419/3، خاک 414/3، هوا 330/3، انسانی 538/3، کالبدی 476/3، گیاهی 400/3 و جانوری 425/3 بوده است. همچنین نتایج آزمون تی تک نمونه ای نشان داد از دیدگاه کارشناسان و مردم، مدیریت پسماند بر ابعاد مختلف محیطی نواحی روستایی تاثیر مثبت و بیش از حد متوسط دارد. نتایج تحلیل واریانس یک طرفه، تفاوت میان شاخص های مطالعه شده و نتایج آزمون تی و توکی، تفاوت میان نواحی روستایی (تفاوت مکانی) را نشان داده است؛ به طوری که روستای حسن رباط در بهترین شرایط و روستای سه در بدترین شرایط (به ویژه در شاخص های خاک، هوا، حیات جانوری و انسانی) قرار داشته اند.

    کلیدواژگان: مدیریت پسماند، محیط روستایی، شاهین شهر و میمه
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  • Moslem Savari *, Lila Barfizadeh, Zeinab Asadi Pages 1-28
    Introduction 

    Farmers frequently cope with risks due to the uncertainty of climatic conditions. The population growth, changes in agricultural policies, environmental regulations, and degradation of natural resources, such as soil and water have all caused farmers face with numerous challenges. Although they have experience in coping with a certain degree of uncertainty, increased climate variability and changes may cause severe problems. Drought in particular is a climatic disaster imposing substantial costs on farmers and affects their agricultural systems extensively. It is the most complex of all natural hazards making vulnerable the arid and semi-arid regions of the world. Although it has not been well documented, the resource-dependent sectors like agriculture are the most vulnerable sectors to the impacts of this phenomenon. A review of the long-term annual precipitation trends indicated that drought had a worldwide return frequency of every 20e30 years. However, in the last 50 years, some countries, such as Iran and Bangladesh, have experienced approximately 27 and 19 drought events, respectively. Therefore, for arid and semiarid regions, drought is a recurrent feature that can lead to the loss of crop production, food shortage, and starvation if not managed properly. Drought impacts could be managed at the macro (national), mesa (local), and micro (village and household) levels. However, the micro-level management (i.e., what farmers should do in response to drought) is of great importance. A review of the studies on farmers’ decision-making in response to climate variability revealed that most research has focused on the decision event and not on the entire process (Swinburn et al., 2011). The food ‘problem’ has become a global obsession: How much and what kind of food is produced? How and by whom is it produced? How is it moved, processed, packaged, and sold? What impacts does it have? Who gets it? What does he/she get it? How much does he/she eat? What might the future hold for all these variables? Such questions are now the subject of measurement, analysis, critique, and campaigning in research journals, policy documents, newspapers and on television screens worldwide. Moreover, the scales of the problems we face and their relationships with the food system are now well recognised and have been exhaustively described elsewhere (Godfray et al., 2010; Beddington et al., 2011; Foresight, 2011; Savari et al., 2013). Put briefly, our global population is rapidly growing and becoming urbanised and thus wealthier. Some consequences are that our dietary patterns are undergoing a change and our demands for land, resource, greenhouse gas (GHG), and intensive foods, such as meat and dairy products, are on the increase. Nonetheless, the available resources of land, water, and minerals are finite though our demands on the Earth may be growing. The difficulties presented by this demand-supply imbalance are compounded by the changing environmental conditions, which would make food production increasingly difficult or unpredictable in many regions of the world. Our production systems not only undermine future aspects of the ecosystem such as biodiversity and water quality upon which we ultimately depend for living, but also exacerbate zoonotic diseases and other risks that directly affect our health. Perhaps most starkly, inequities and distortions in the distribution ways of the inputs to and outputs from food production have given rise to a paradoxical situation wherein 1.4 billion people in the world are overweight or obese, while other 850 million lack sufficient calories and are thus undernourished (FAO, 2011). The advocates of this dominant approach include governments and food industry actors, such as agricultural input businesses, farming unions, manufacturers, and retailers. In essence, this perspective is based on the assumption that the food security problem is a supply-side challenge. More food needs to be produced to meet the increasing and changing demands of the growing populations. Technological innovations and managerial improvements may enable us to more effectively meet these demands in a way that we put less harmful impacts on the environment besides enhancing nutrition and food production (ADAS et al., 2011). Climate change and global warming in recent decades have taken the world to the point that almost all the countries are now facing drought and water shortages. Among the economic sectors, the agricultural sector has suffered the most due to its high dependence on rainfall. The first effects of drought begin with a reduction in food production and farmers’ incomes, which have now led to increased poverty and food insecurity in rural areas. Therefore, this study was conducted with the general aim of assessing the effects of social capital on achieving food security in drought conditions in the rural settlements of Dorud County.

    Materials and Methods 

    The statistical population of this study included all the rural households working in the agricultural sector of Dorud County. Three hundred seventy five heads of households were selected through stratified sampling method with proportional assignment by using Krejcie and Morgan table. The data analysis was performed based on the descriptive and inferential statistics using SPSS software. The main research tool was a questionnaire whose validity and reliability were confirmed by a panel of experts and Cronbach's alpha coefficient, respectively.

    Results and Discussion

    The results revealed that the rural households were not in a good position in terms of food security and social capital. In addition, the results of ordinal regression showed that the components of social capital (social trust, social cohesion, participation and collective action, and group membership) had positive and significant effects on improving food security in the rural households in Dorud County. The results of this research can provide new insights for policy-makers and rural development planners to stabilize rural households in drought conditions.

    Conclusion

    Access to adequate nutrition (nutritional health) is one of the main pillars of development and the basis for the future development of the country. According to the studies on the role of nutrition in health, the nutrition efficiency and its relation with economic development have been corroborated. Access to adequate and desirable food is one of the earliest human rights; however, various studies have demonstrated that rural communities that are responsible for food security themselves are facing food insecurity, which is much more inferior to the situation in a drought condition. Rural households are always at the forefront of drought vulnerability and hence quickly lose their resilience and leave the agricultural sector in the absence of risk mitigation systems. Therefore, proper measures must be taken to enable them to continue their activities in agriculture in drought conditions and maintain the backbone of food security in the country.

    Keywords: Social Capital, Food Security, Rural Household, Drought
  • Mousa Abedini *, Fahimeh Pour Farrash Zadeh, - Mortaza Gharachorlu Pages 29-43
     Introduction

    Predicting and obtaining information about stream flows is vital for many practical applications such as water allocation, long-term planning, catchment management operation, flood forecasting, optimization of hydropower production, designing hydraulic structures, and so on. On these accounts, experts have always attempted to accurately estimate river flows and provide contributions to the existing methods. It is possible to establish a relationship between discharges of catchments based on sufficient statistics and their geometry characteristics by using regional analysis and multivariate regression in a relatively homogeneous region in order to estimate discharges of the catchments without statistics or with insufficient statistics in that region. Owing to the need for a better modeling of water discharges in terms of seasonal variations, the present study tried to regionally estimate the monthly mean, minimum, and maximum discharges in Kashfarud Watershed based on geomorphometric variables in order to: (1) examine the possibility of scientific and useful generalization of surface water quantity in the whole watershed and (2) identify and determine important geomorphometric factors influencing the water discharge variations of Kashfarud sub-watersheds. Kashfarud as a vital flow in this region, including Mashhad plain, has played an important role in supplying water to the inhabitants of Mashhad metropolis and other surrounding cities such as Chenaran and Torqabeh. Besides, extensive engineering facilities, such as Golestan, Torogh, Kardeh, and Ardak dams, have been built on the tributaries of this river. 

    Methodology

    The research was grounded upon statistical analysis, including correlation and regression tests. For this study, we made use of monthly average (low, medium, high) discharge data and resolution of 30-m DEM. The discharge data were measured in 10-gauge stations of 10 sub-watersheds over 20 year (1997-2017). In this regard, we considered the monthly discharge values ​​of 10 stations located in 10 sub-basins during the water years of 1997-2016. The research proceeded as follows: after selecting the common statistical period, we calculated the monthly average flows recorded in the stations over 20 years. Next, 2 months with the highest and lowest flows were selected in each station. Also, we considered the values ​​of the two selected months besides the average monthly discharges in the stations (average of 12 months) as the dependent variables. Afterwards, we embarked upon to calculate the independent geomorphometric variables (16 variables), which were determined by using DEM in the GIS environment. The independent variables included perimeter, area, minimum elevation, average elevation, maximum elevation, elevation range, average slope, maximum slope, main stream slope,  main stream length, total stream length, drainage density, Schumm’s roughness index, Gravilius coefficient, elongation, and concentration time. After calculating the values ​​of the 3 dependent and 16 independent variables for each station, we tested them based on a two-way correlation to find out which variables had a significant relationship by means of the correlation matrix. The significance level of the correlation relationships was ≤0.05. Finally, we  presented an estimate model of the dependent variables via the independent variables. This was done based on the dependent and independent variables that had significant correlation relationships.  

    Discussion

    The results of the correlation analysis showed no significant relationships between the minimum monthly discharges and the independent variables.  This was probably due to the dryness condition and small variance in the low monthly discharge rates among the sub-watersheds. In contrast, significant relationships were obtained among the monthly mean and maximum discharges and 6 geomorphometric variables including the average elevation, maximum elevation, elevation range, average slope, drainage density, and roughness ratio. The correlation coefficients of all significant relationships were above 0.6, indicating a close and strong relationship between these variables. The direct correlation of altitude, slope, and roughness with monthly mean and maximum discharges indicated that on the one hand, the monthly discharges of the sub-watersheds were strongly dependent on the altitude variables dominating the other environmental factors while on the other hand, the roughness intensity and active dynamics associated with the variables of altitude played an important role in water flowing and transporting from upstream to downstream of the catchments so that the speed of hydrological responses of the catchments increased by the rise of roughness severity. In contrast, the negative correlation between the drainage density and the dependent variables was unexpected and probably associated with hydroclimatic conditions indicating characteristics of the dry and geologic conditions, permeability of some formations, and presence of joints and fissures in the rocks. The predictive regression models of the monthly mean and maximum discharges had good accuracies and efficiencies and could explain 80 and 90% of variances of the monthly average and maximum discharges, respectively. 

    Conclusion

    Modeling the spatial variations of discharges in watersheds requires consideration of hydrological limit values both daily and seasonally, along with normal and average values. By adopting such an approach, the present study aimed at modeling monthly water discharges in Kashfarud sub-watersheds based on geomorphometric variables. The multivariate regression analysis among the independent variables including the average and maximum monthly flows and 16 independent geomorphometric variables revealed that the regression models could be obtained through the variables of average elevation, maximum elevation, elevation range, average slope, drainage density, and roughness ratio. These factors could explain the major parts of variance of the independent variables. It is possible to generalize the monthly mean and maximum discharges achieved in this study to other sub-watersheds through the resulting models with respect to the low estimation errors and high accuracies. However, generalization the monthly minimum discharges is not possible due to the lack of a significant correlation between this variable and geomorphometric variables. It is necessary to estimate the monthly minimum discharges in Kashfarud Watershed by reconstructing and converting the data or extending other predictive models. Reliable estimations of low water discharges provide us with information about water supply for the environment and water quality management for sustainability of healthy ecosystems. Also, owing to the role of small mountain catchments in the occurrence of peak flows, prioritization of watershed management measures in such catchments is incumbent to reduce the risk of floods. 

    Keywords: Correlation, discharge, Geometric Characteristics, Kashafrood, Regression
  • Fatemeh Bahadori-Amjaz, Mojtaba Soleimani-Sardo * Pages 45-63
    Introduction

    Dams are economically, politically, and socially important structures and their roles in the development of countries are undeniable. The purpose of this study was to investigate the environmental risks of Jiroft Dam in the utilization phase so as to reduce its negative effects. Construction of a large dam can threat the environment in various ways. In this research, the physico-chemical, natural, biological, socio-economic and cultural, and safety and health risks of Jiroft Dam were evaluated. 

    Methodology

    In this study, EFMEA method was used to assess the environmental risks of Jiroft Dam. To evaluate the relevant risks, 29 parameters in 5 groups, including physico-chemical, natural, socio-economic and cultural, biological, and safety and health risks were chosen. The data were collected by interviewing the experts. The risk factors were evaluated by using EFMEA method based on the probability of occurrence and severity and probability of detection. To determine priorities of the risk levels, the upper and lower limits of each risk and its average and standard deviation were obtained. 

    Discussion

    Based on the Risk Priority Number (RPN), the soil erosion with RPN=100 and in river downstream morphology changes with RPN=12 showed the highest and lowest risk values related to the physico-chemical factors. Also, flood with RPN=60 and landslide with RPN=20 displayed the highest and lowest risk values related to the natural risk factors. Moreover, among the biological risk factors, the impacts on the habitat (RPN=75) and threats to the aquatic life of the downstream (RPN=80) demonstrated the highest numerical risk values. The lowest RPN was related to propagation of weeds in the downstream of the dam and changes in food chains (RPN=20). Also, land-use change (RPN=20) and social acceptance and security risks (RPN=6) revealed the highest and lowest risk levels related to the social, economic, and cultural factors. Furthermore, human mistakes before, during, and after the utilization phase, which were related to the safety (RPN=75) and health (RPN=48) risk factors depicted the highest levels of risk, while the growth of insects in Jiroft Dam Reservoir (RPN=12) indicated the lowest risk value. 

    Conclusion

    According to the findings, soil erosion and sedimentation showed high-risk levels in the group of physico-chemical risks. Moreover, their effects on water sources (thermal layering), pollution (air, sound, soil, and water), downstream-suspended solids, soil eutrophication, and soil compaction were classified in a moderate-risk class, while the river morphology change was classified in the low-risk class. The earthquake, flood, and landslide were classified in the moderate-risk class. Also, the habitat risk and threatening to the aquatic life of the downstream related to the biological risks were classified in the high-risk class. Effects on the vegetation, blocking of the migration route (animal movement), propagation of weeds in downstream of the dam, changes to the food chains, and degradation of harbor area were classified in the moderate-risk class. Among the socio-economic and cultural indices, the land use change as well as the reduced employment and income in the region were classified in the medium-risk class, while the social acceptance and security, tourism acceptance, and land acquisition were classified in the low-risk class. In the group of safety and health risks, human mistakes before, during, and after the utilization phase showed a high risk, while creating a suitable environment for the growth of insects in Jiroft Dam Reservoir displayed a low-risk level. The risks of explosions, war, and terrorism related to the dam, corrosion of facilities, and spread of diseases were classified in the moderate-risk class. The results of this research can significantly help to reduce the environmental hazards of the mentioned dam during the utilization phase.

    Keywords: Environmental Impact Assessment, EFMEA, water resources, Halilrood
  • Sayyad Asghari Saraskanroud *, Shiva Safari, Elham Mollanouri Pages 65-86
    Introduction

    Groundwater plays a vital role in water resources, ecosystems, and human life. The role of groundwater is more prominent especially in areas where it is the main source of people's needs including drinking and agriculture water. Annually, about 982 billion cubic meters of groundwater is extracted worldwide and 70% of it is used for agriculture. The land use is one of the most important events through which humans cause changes to the environment. One of the most important natural resources that are severely damaged by land-use changes is water resources and groundwater. Therefore, it is necessary to study the land use and its effects on the environment, especially groundwater, along with other issues, such as precipitation fluctuations. Today, due to the high cost of constructing piezometric wells for studying groundwater aquifers to become aware of the process of its changes, such studies are done through remote sensing technology. GRACE gravimetric satellite is a revolution in surveying and estimating groundwater aquifers. 

    Methodology

    The northwest of the country with an area of ​​about 126420 km2 includes Ardabil, East Azerbaijan, West Azerbaijan, and Zanjan provinces. Khiavchai Basin located to the right of Ardabil is one of the sub-tributaries of Qarahsu River. The geographical coordinates of the study area located in the eastern side of Meshkinshahr are within the east longitude of 47◦ 38' 12" and 47◦ 48' 1" as well as the north latitude of 38◦ 12' 9" and 38◦ 24' 16". In the present study, the 3 products of GRACE satellite (CSR, GFZ, and JPL) were employed to extract fluctuations of the mentioned groundwater level by using Google Earth Engine (GEE) in the period of 2002-2016. Land-use classification of Xiao Region was done after examining the status of the northwestern aquifers and obtaining information from 8 piezometric wells in Xiao Region, along with the precipitation information obtained through TRMM satellite. The verification of this data was done by using the piezometric information of the station. To do this, 8 images of LandsatTM sensors and Landsat satellite related to the years of 2016 and 2002 were taken, respectively. The land-use maps were drawn according to different land uses in the region in the 7 classes of irrigated agriculture, rainfed agriculture, rangeland, residential areas, gardens, snow-covered lands, and irrigated lands. In eCognition software, they were extracted by using the object-oriented technique and their overall accuracy coefficient and kappa coefficient were obtained.

     Results and Discussion

    Similar independent results from the 3 GRACE satellite products showed that the groundwater changes in the northwestern region of the country had a downward trend and decreased by approximately 32 cm from 2002 to 2016. According to the studies on the land-use maps and information zoning of piezometric wells in Xiao Region, a decreasing trend of the aquifers in Khiao Region was observed. The loss of rangeland use and the increase in construction and residential areas and agriculture lands were the causes of lack of permeability and surface pressures of the groundwater aquifers and the ultimate reduction of their levels. Therefore, according to the research results, the land-use change was an important factor in reducing the levels of the aquifers in the region. It is noteworthy that the precipitation phenomenon, although insignificant from 2002 to 2016, showed a decrease of 51 mm through TRMM satellite data and a 25-mm decrease in the precipitation of the region by using the piezometric station data, which could not be ineffective in lowering the groundwater aquifers. 

    Conclusion

    Due to the importance of groundwater aquifers, their statuses were studied in the northwest of the country by using the data obtained from the 3 GRACE gravimeter satellite products of CSR, GFZ, and JPL in the GEE environment, which indicated a 32-cm drop in the groundwater aquifers in the basin. The results of the land-use changes and groundwater level in Khiavchai Basin in Meshkinshahr showed that the uses of rangeland and residential and barren lands had generally decreased and increased in a period of 14 years (2002-2016), respectively. The decrease of groundwater level caused by the mentioned uses had been intensified by these changes. In general, it could be concluded that there was a correlation between land use and groundwater level change in the study area. Also, the study of precipitation phenomenon by using TRMM satellite data and the synoptic station data demonstrated a decrease in precipitation, which could not be ignored in the intensification of the groundwater levels. Other results of this research included the capability of the GEE processing system in providing users with valuable information without the need for heavy processing operations. 

    Keywords: Groundwater, GRACE satellite, Google Earth Engine (GEE) system, Land Use
  • Mohadeseh Ershad, Amirreza Keshtkar *, S.M. Hosseini, Ali Afzali Pages 87-105
    Introduction

    As one of the vital components of life, water is essential for many economic activities. The assessment and monitoring of groundwater quality has always been a major challenge associated with special problems. Taking into account the decline in the level of groundwater in most of Iran’s plains including Yazd-Ardakan plain, and its effects on groundwater quality, the present study uses a non-parametric Mann-Kendall test to investigate the trend of changes in the vriables of groundwater quality in Yazd-Ardakan plain and to estimate the slope of trend line by Sen’s slope estimator. 

    Methodology

    Yazd-Ardakan Plain is one of the widest plains in Iran. In this research, the statistics and information about 25 sources including 12 wells, 12 qanats and 1 spring during a 10-year statistical period (2004-2014) has been used. To study the trend in time series, many parametric and nonparametric statistical methods have been developed and widely used by various researchers. Mann-Kendall method was initially developed by Mann (1945), and then by Kendall (1970). The null hypothesis in Mann-Kendall test implies randomness and lack of trend in data series, and confirmation of hypothesis one (rejection of the null hypothesis) indicates the presence of a trend in the data series. A very useful index in Mann Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimator shows the linearity of trend. 

    Discussion

    Groundwater is considered as one of the important biological parameters; therefore, the monitoring and evaluation of groundwater quality change is a significant issue. Overall, of all the studied parameters, the parameters of total dissolved salts, sodium absorption ratio and electrical conductivity had very large positive slopes compared with other parameters. This represents a significant increase in the concentration of sch parameters during the period of investigation. 

    Conclusion

    In this study, the trend of changes in some groundwater quality parameters in Yazd-Ardakan plain in Yazd province was studied by using Mann-Kendall’s nonparametric test and the magnitude of this trend was measured by Sen’s slope estimator. The results show that the quality of groundwater in this plain has declined over the studied period. The biggest slope changes in the trend line (micromhos on cm  EC= 550)  was related to the electrical conductivity indicating groundwater salinity, Moreover, the noticeable changes in electrical conductivity in recharge and discharge months indicate drastic changes in the groundwater quality due to precipitation. It can be argued that rainfall (total monthly rainfall of 10.8 mm in the month of discharge and total rainfall of 76 mm in the month of recharge) has greatly influenced the  groundwater quality . 

    Keywords: Ground water quality, Trend, Nonparametric Mann-Kendall, Sen̕s estimator
  • Mohammad Reza Hamzehee *, Mohammad Hossein Babaei, Abdolhamid Papzan Pages 107-134
    Introduction

    The crisis of climate change, and especially dust phenomenon, has become more apparent in the last decade as it now involves all aspects of the society, especially farmers and villagers. The growing number of natural disasters has sounded the alarm for the agricultural community in Kermanshah province. In this province, most people are working through agriculture and the slightest change in the climate can have an immediate impact on the agricultural sector, thus leading to bigger problems such as immigration, and the country's lack of independence in meeting food needs and resolving social, economic, cultural, or even political issues. Accordingly, dust management and planning for it can be effective when we identify and classify the areas affected by dust based on the intensity and concentration of fine dust particles.Dust phenomenon has imposed a lot of costs on the agricultural, economic, and health products of people living along the Zagros Mountain Range in recent years. Zoning of the affected areas can be a tool for planners to deal with priorities, determine an optimal land use, and provide warning systems and protection, etc. in arid and semi-arid regions, especially in the involved cities. Although the issue of dust is an almost uncontrollable phenomenon, it is at least possible to know the time table and circulatory patterns, based on which infiltration of particulate matters from the regions occurs. The related infrastructure is ready to deal with this phenomenon. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the areas that suffer from the most damage caused by fine dust and effectively contribute to the reduction of its destructive outcomes. 

    Methodology

    In this research, quantitative, applied, and descriptive-analytical approaches were taken in terms of paradigm, objective, and data collection, respectively. To conduct this study, 14 synoptic, complementary synoptic, and meteorological stations working through the complete and longest statistical period were selected during a common statistical period of 16 years (2002-2018). At the meteorological stations, two-digit codes were utilized to report on the atmospheric phenomena like precipitation type, including precipitation with thunderstorms and snowstorms, as well as the amounts of dust or sand. These codes started from 00 and continued up to 99, each of which represented an atmospheric phenomenon. Code 06 was for dust phenomenon. The frequency of this code was different from those of the other codes when filtered in Excel software, after which its annual frequency reported in each of the selected stations during the 16-year statistical period was calculated by SPSS software. In the final stage, zoning patterns were formed and the information layers were analyzed in the ArcGIS software environment. 

    Results and discussion

    Based on the annual frequency of airborne dust storms, dust pollution in the cities of Kermanshah province fell into 3 categories: very severe, severe, and moderate. The cities of Sarpol-e-zahab, Qasr-e-Shirin, Paveh, Gilan-e-gharb, and Thalas-e-Babajani fell in the category of very severe frequency; Kermanshah, Javanroud, Ravansar, Dalahou, and Islamabad cities had a severe frequency; and Sahneh, Kangavar, Songor, and Harsin cities were categorized as having a moderate frequency. There was almost a big difference between the first category and the second and third one in terms of frequency of dust days. The reason was that the first group of stations were located in the vicinity of Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Jordan, and Kuwait, which were the sources of dust spread over the western regions of Kermanshah province. Also, the drought and lack of vegetation in these regions leading to the separation of soil particles were known as the aggravating factors contributing to the occurrence of more dust days in this group. However, the stations in the second and third districts had fewer dusty days due to being far from the mentioned dust centers. 

    Conclusion

    The agricultural sector is one of the most important economic sectors in all developing countries, which, in addition to creating jobs for people, is responsible for producing the food needed by the members of the society. Agricultural activities can lead to independence in other aspects. Apart from all the benefits of agricultural activities for a country, it is important to consider what happens if a factor has a negative impact on them. Unfortunately, we have witnessed dust occurrence in the country, especially in the western and southwestern regions in the last decade. The effects of dust on agriculture can be a threat to the health of producers and consumers, as well as the environment and natural resources. On the other hand, most people make a living from agriculture and animal husbandry in Iran, particularly in the study area. Therefore, long-term dust would destroy people’s productive resources in the study regions and thus reduce food production and independence. In this research, we sought to conduct zoning of the areas affected by dust phenomenon in Kermanshah Province. This way, we could identify areas undergoing the most damage from dust. Eradicating the causes and factors leading to severe damages triggered by dust phenomenon can be the basis for policy-makers and developers of appropriate programs to prevent natural and priority crises and deal with them in strategic decision-making and planning. The results revealed that the cities in the western and eastern regions of Kermanshah province had the highest and lowest frequencies of dust occurrence during the last 16 years, respectively. 

    Keywords: fine dust particles, dust zoning, climate disaster, Kermanshah
  • Asghar Norouzi *, Behruz Gharani Arani, Maryam Abdolhoseini Pages 135-153
    Introduction

     In recent decades, with a sharp increase in population, industrialization of societies, changes in lifestyle, and increasing diversity of human needs, the amount of waste production has increased with negative effects on human health and the environment. Rural areas have also faced different types of waste and their negative consequences in parallel with global developments and thus, "waste management" would be the true response to this situation. However, the specific characteristics of the local lifestyles and socioeconomic conditions of rural areas are different from other areas, i.e., villagers act differently from people living in non-rural areas. As such,  not only their wastes, but also their managements are different. Shahin Shahr and Meymeh counties have varied types of rural and urban agricultural wastes due to their industrial densities, rapid urbanization growth, and significant numbers of villagers and thus, the importance of waste management in preserving the environment, especially the rural environment, is quite clear. The present study aimed to answer the following questions: What are the effects of rural waste management on the environments of the studied areas? Is there a significant difference between the different dimensions affected? Are there any differences between the villages based on the indicators? 

    Methodology

    This study evaluated the effects of waste management on the environment preservations of the rural areas of Shahin Shahr and Meymeh counties. According to the Extensive Statistical Society, 4 villages of Hassan Robat, Jahad Abad, Vandadeh, and Soh were selected based on the random cluster method in a way that one village from each rural district was determined and finally, 285 samples were chosen based on Cochran’s formula. This study was a descriptive analytical and applied research in terms of objective. The data were randomly obtained from the sample villages through a survey method by designing a researcher-made questionnaire. For data analysis, one-sample T-test, analysis of variance (ANOVA), and Tukey test were applied in SPSS software. 

    Discussion

    To assess the normality of the data, one-sample T-test was used to evaluate the impacts of rural waste management on the environments of the rural areas. Based on this test, the value of 3 indicated an average effect. It was a two-tailed test with 281 degrees of freedom (d.f: (n-1)=282-1=281). The villagers’ points of view showed that the P value calculated for each of the environmental indicators was less than 0.05. Therefore, based on the mentioned values and considering the average and desirable limit of 3, the effectiveness of rural waste management in improving and promoting the indicators of water, soil, air, vegetation cover, animal diversity, and human and physical environments was higher than the average. Based on the analysis of the experts’ opinions and according to the Sig. (2-tailed) level, the calculated values were less than 0.05 and the high impacts of waste management in relation to the indicators of human and physical environments, vegetation, and animal diversity with the averages of 3.665, 3.445, 3.503, and 3.538 were accepted, respectively. Then, one-way ANOVA was applied to examine the differences in the dimensions of the environmental indicators. Based on the findings, the calculated Sig. (2-tailed) levels for some environmental indicators like climate were lower than the significance level of 0.05 compared to the other indicators. Therefore, the difference between the environmental indicators was confirmed. Also, to find out the difference between the rural areas studied in Shahin Shahr County, one-sample T-test and Tukey test were utilized to classify the villages in homogeneous groups. Considering the desired value of effectiveness (3) and based on the quantitative average values of the one-sample T-test, a significant difference could be observed between the studied villages compared to other villages. The environmental indicators of improving water, soil, and air qualities in Soh Village had lower values than the desired average value. Based on the average values obtained from the one-sample T-test, Hassan Robat and Jahad Abad villages had the highest average values regarding the effects of rural waste management on improving vegetation quality, as well as the animal, human, and physical environments. Conversely, the villages of Vandadeh and Soh had a lower average. Compared to other villages, the Soh Village with the average of 2.166 had the lowest quality of human environment. After determining the significant differences between the environmental indicators on the one hand and between the studied areas on the other hand, Tukey test was used to classify the studied villages in homogeneous groups. The findings indicated the impact of difference in location on the studied indicators. 

    Conclusion

    According to the results, the total average value of the indicators in the studied areas was higher than 3 with the values of 3.419, 3.414, 3.330, 3.538, 3.476, 3.425, and 3.400 for water, soil, air, human environment, physical environment, animal environment, and vegetation, respectively. Also, the results of one-sample T-test showed that from the experts and people’s viewpoints, waste management had a positive effect on the various environmental dimensions of the rural areas with a value of higher than average. The results of one-way ANOVA revealed the difference between the studied indicators and those of T- and Tukey tests displayed the difference between the rural areas (difference in location). Consequently, the Hassan Robat and Soh villages were found to have the best and worst conditions, especially in terms of soil, air, animal environment, and human life, respectively. 

    Keywords: Waste Management, rural environment, Shahin Shahr, Meymeh counties